Sunk Cost Fallacy: When To Kill A Bad Niche

The Hardest Part Of Growing: Letting Go Of A Dead Niche

The most painful decision in short-form content is not what to post next.
It’s deciding when to stop posting what you’ve already spent months building.

You’ve:

Posted hundreds of Shorts or Reels
Learned the editing style
Built some routines and workflows
Maybe even spent money on gear or courses

And the niche still isn’t working.

You keep telling yourself:

“I’ve already put so much time into this.”
“I just need one viral video and it’ll take off.”
“I can’t throw away what I’ve built.”

That’s the sunk cost fallacy in action.

Understanding this one mistake can save you years of grinding in a niche that will never give you the growth you want.

Let’s break it down for creators using ShortsFire, YouTube Shorts, TikTok, and Instagram Reels.

What The Sunk Cost Fallacy Really Is (For Creators)

The sunk cost fallacy is when you keep investing in something only because you’ve already invested a lot in it.

In content terms, it looks like this:

“I’ve posted 200 videos in this niche, I can’t switch now.”

The problem is simple.
Past effort is gone. It’s “sunk.” It should not control your future decisions.

The only question that matters:

“If I were starting from zero today, would I pick this same niche again?”

If the honest answer is no, you’re stuck in sunk cost thinking.

Signs Your Niche Is Probably Dead (Even If You Work Harder)

Not every slow niche is a dead niche. Some topics are slow but steady.
Others are just black holes for your time.

Here are clear warning signs your niche might be the second type.

1. Your “Best” Videos Still Underperform

Look at your top 10 performing videos over the last 90 days.

If you’re using ShortsFire or platform analytics, focus on:

Highest views in the first 48 hours
Highest watch time percentage
Highest click-through rate on YouTube (if applicable)

Ask yourself:

Are your best videos still stuck at low view counts?
Do they get a tiny spike and then die instantly?
Do none of them break out of your usual low range?

If your absolute best attempts barely beat your average, that’s a serious red flag.

2. No Clear Audience Identity

Successful niches attract a clear type of person.

If you can’t answer these questions in one short sentence, your niche is foggy:

Who watches your content?
Why do they care?
What problem or desire does every video speak to?

If your answer is something vague like “people who like motivation” or “anyone who likes funny content,” that’s not a niche. That’s wishful thinking.

3. Comments Are Weak Signals

Comments tell the truth.

Red flags:

Most comments are from other small creators, “Nice video, bro”
Bots and generic emojis dominate
Nobody asks questions
Nobody tags friends or says “this is so me” or “this is exactly my problem”

If your comment section doesn’t show actual humans getting value or entertainment that feels specific, your niche might be too bland or misaligned.

4. You Hate Making The Content (But Keep Going Anyway)

You might not love every editing session. That’s normal.

But if you feel:

Dread every time you hit record
Zero curiosity about the topic
Resentment toward your own audience

You’re not “being disciplined.”
You’re trapping yourself in a dead niche out of guilt.

The Data Check: Is It The Niche Or The Execution?

Before you kill a niche, you need to be sure the problem is the niche, not just the way you’re executing it.

Run this simple 3-part check.

1. Compare Against Platform Benchmarks

Look at 30 to 50 recent videos.

On Shorts / TikTok / Reels, check:

Average views per video
Percentage of videos that perform better than your usual average
Number of saves, shares, and comments per 1,000 views

If all your videos are consistently flat, that suggests either:

Your hooks are weak
or
The topic itself has low pull for the audience you’re reaching

Use ShortsFire or platform analytics to compare:

Hook performance (first 3 seconds)
Drop off points
Repeat views

If your hooks are solid but people still bounce, the topic itself may not be compelling.

2. Test Aggressive Variation Inside The Same Niche

Before giving up on the niche, push it hard from different angles for 2 to 3 weeks:

Try 5 completely different hook styles
Try different story angles around the same topic
Mix formats: face cam, B-roll with voiceover, text-only, meme style

If none of these variations create even a small breakout video, that’s another sign the niche might be the issue, not just your style.

3. Look For Outlier Videos

Scroll back through your content and find:

Any video that performed 3x better than your average
Any video that generated more thoughtful comments like “this helped” or “do more of this”

Ask:

Was that video inside your niche, or slightly outside it?
What was different about its topic, angle, or audience?

Outliers often hint at a better direction. Sometimes your “dead niche” is just blocking you from seeing where viewers truly respond.

A Simple Framework To Decide: Kill, Keep, Or Pivot

Use this quick framework to make a rational decision instead of an emotional one.

Step 1: Ask 3 Brutal Questions

If my channel vanished today, would I choose this same niche again?
Do my top 10 videos show any real momentum?
Do I enjoy learning more about this topic and creating for this audience?

If you have:

2 or 3 clear “no” answers
you likely need a big change.

Step 2: Set A Short Testing Window

Decide on a focused testing period:

30 days or 20 to 30 videos

During that window:

Double down on your best performing sub-topic within the niche
Sharpen hooks using what ShortsFire or analytics reveal
Improve titles and thumbnails where applicable (YouTube Shorts especially)
Try 1 strong call-to-action in each video that encourages comments or shares

If, after this push, your top videos still barely move, you have solid data. The niche is not responding to your best effort.

Step 3: Choose One Of Three Moves

Now pick:

Kill
Completely walk away from the niche and start fresh.
Pivot
Stay in a related space, but change:
- Audience (for example, from “general fitness” to “busy parents”
- Format (from generic tips to “day in the life”, challenges, or transformations)
- Topic angle (for example, from “productivity tips” to “productivity for ADHD”)
Keep
Stay the course only if:
- You see at least a few outlier videos with real momentum
- You actually enjoy the niche and see long term potential

The key is to decide on purpose, not drift along out of guilt.

How To Emotionally Detach From Your Sunk Costs

Killing a niche does not mean:

Your past work was useless
You “failed”
You wasted all that time

You did not waste that time. You bought experience.

You learned:

How to shoot faster
How to edit cleaner
How to write hooks
How to publish consistently
How to read analytics
How platforms behave

All of that transfers into your next niche.

To make the mental shift easier, try this:

Rename the old niche in your own head
Instead of “my failed channel,” call it “my training project.”
Archive, don’t delete
Keep your old content, but mentally mark the moment you pivot. New niche, new era.
Set a clear start date
“From January 10, I’m building Niche 2.0 with everything I’ve learned.”

You’re not starting from zero.
You’re starting from experience with a smarter topic.

Using ShortsFire To Test New Niches Without Going All In

If you use ShortsFire or a similar tool, you can reduce the risk of picking another weak niche.

Here’s how to use it strategically:

Idea mining across winning content
- Search across top performing Shorts, TikToks, or Reels in areas you’re curious about
- Look for repeated themes and angles that consistently go viral
Build “mini batches” for 2 or 3 niches
- Create 5 to 10 videos per niche idea instead of locking into 1 niche immediately
- Schedule them over 2 to 3 weeks
Compare early performance, not just vibes
Track per niche:
- Average 1 hour and 24 hour views
- Watch time percentage
- Saves and shares rate
Commit to the best signal
When one niche shows stronger metrics across multiple videos, shift your focus there.

This keeps you from emotionally marrying the first niche you try.

When You Should NOT Kill A Niche (Yet)

Sometimes creators quit right before things turn around. So here are cases where you probably should not kill your niche yet:

Your niche is clear and specific, but your hooks are consistently weak
You’ve only posted 20 or 30 times total
You see 1 or 2 videos that performed 3x better, but you never doubled down on their pattern
You jump styles, lengths, and topics every week, so the algorithm has no idea who your audience is

In those cases, your niche might be fine.
Your consistency and execution may just need time and discipline.

Final Thought: Your Next Niche Is Built On This One

The sunk cost fallacy keeps creators stuck in niches that will never grow.

You’re not “giving up” by walking away from a dead niche.
You’re choosing to build your next chapter on top of real experience, instead of clinging to a story that no longer fits.

Ask the hard questions.
Run the short testing window.
Use your tools to test smarter.

Then have the courage to either double down with intention or walk away and pick a niche that actually has a future for you.